Statistics Canada uses a specific model to make projections from the year 2006 to 2031, regarding ethno-cultural diversity within Canada. Taking into account various assumptions and scenarios, a picture could be created as to what the nation would look like in the future. These variables include situations such as the immigration rate, the average number of children per woman, schooling, emigration, place of birth of new immigrants, etc. As well, because it is hard to project the numbers when so many assumptions come into play, Statistics Canada created three possible scenarios; a low growth, high growth, and reference situation (which is in between). From there the results could be processed into three main categories: ethno-cultural diversity of the Canadian population as a whole, within census metropolitan areas (CMAs), and between generations.
When examining this data as it applies to Canada’s ethno-cultural diversity as a whole, a couple things can be noted. First off by 2031, 3 out of 10 (or 11.4-14.4 million) Canadians will be of a visible minority – the largest groups being South Asian and Chinese. Secondly, the population of non-Christian religious denominations will double by 2031, with Islam increasing significantly from 35% to 48% of all non-Christian religious denominations. Lastly, 3 out of 10 Canadians will have a mother tongue other than French or English, the two official languages of this country.
However, this information can then be applied to more specific areas as well, such as CMAs. Sixty-five percent of all newcomers currently choose to settle in Toronto, Montreal or Vancouver. In Toronto, 63% of people are projected to be from a visible minority by 2031. In Vancouver it is much the same at 59%, and in Montreal the projection is set at 31%. When looking at religion the reality for the city of Vancouver in 2006 was that one-third of the population asserted to having no religion, which is projected to remain consistent heading into 2031. Also in Toronto, a significant drop in Christian religious denominations is projected to occur, from 61% in 2006 down to 49% by 2031.
Finally, this information can then be taken and looked at from generation to generation. By 2031, it is thought that the foreign-born population in Canada will reach a record high of 25%-28% (1 in 4) of people; of this percentage two-thirds are projected to be from a visible minority. As well, only 1 in 2 Canadians aged 15 and older will have been settled in Canada for a least three generations.
No matter how one looks at these projections and results, it is clear that the diversity of peoples and cultures in Canada is going to be changing and increasing significantly in the coming years. Although these projections do not predict the future by any means, they alert individuals and governments across the nation to the anticipated changing ethno-cultural reality.
For more information, read the full article at http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-551-x/91-551-x2010001-eng.pdf
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